The most commonly correlated forex pairs are EUR/USD and GBP/USD (which usually move in the same direction) and EUR/USD and USD/CHF (which usually move in opposite directions). Trading correlated pairs well means knowing which of your positions are really the same bet, so you do not double your risk by accident.
Below is a list of correlated pairs with the reason behind each, how correlation is measured, how to use it to manage risk, and how the rand fits in.
Correlated forex pairs list
“Positive” means the pairs tend to move in the same direction; “negative” means they tend to move in opposite directions. These are typical relationships, not fixed rules.
| Pair or market | Pair or market | Usual direction | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | GBP/USD | Positive | Both are priced against the US dollar, and the euro area and UK economies are closely linked. |
| AUD/USD | NZD/USD | Positive | Neighbouring, trade-linked economies; both currencies react to risk sentiment and commodity prices. |
| USD/CHF | USD/JPY | Positive | Both have the dollar as base currency, and the franc and yen are both treated as safe havens. |
| EUR/USD | USD/CHF | Negative | The dollar sits on opposite sides of the two quotes, and the euro and franc tend to move together. |
| GBP/USD | USD/CHF | Negative | Same logic: when the dollar weakens, GBP/USD rises and USD/CHF falls. |
| USD/CAD | Crude oil | Negative | Canada is a large oil exporter, so the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when oil rises, pushing USD/CAD down. |
| AUD/USD | Gold | Positive | Australia is a major gold producer, so the Australian dollar often tracks gold. |
| USD/ZAR | EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR | Positive | The rand is the common currency; when the rand weakens, all three tend to rise. |
| USD/ZAR | AUD/USD | Negative | Both the rand and the Australian dollar are risk and commodity currencies. When they strengthen, AUD/USD rises and USD/ZAR falls. |
Big US data releases, such as Non-Farm Payroll, tend to move every dollar pair at once, so correlations between USD pairs are often strongest around news.
How correlation is measured
Correlation is measured with a correlation coefficient from -1 to +1:
- +1: the two pairs move in the same direction every time.
- 0: no consistent relationship.
- -1: the two pairs move in opposite directions every time.
As a working rule, traders treat readings above +0.7 or below -0.7 as strong, and readings between -0.3 and +0.3 as weak. Pairs almost never sit at exactly +1 or -1.
Calculating it yourself
- Export closing prices for both pairs over the same period and timeframe, for example 50 daily closes.
- Put them in two columns in a spreadsheet.
- Use the CORREL function (Excel or Google Sheets) on the two columns.
- Repeat on a shorter and a longer period. If the results differ a lot, the relationship is unstable.
The period you choose changes the answer. A pair can be strongly correlated over a year and weakly correlated over the past month.
How to use correlation to manage risk
Avoid doubling your exposure
Buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD at the same time is close to one larger short-dollar trade. If the dollar strengthens, both lose. Size the combined position as one trade, so your total risk stays within your limit (for example 1% to 2% of your account). Higher leverage makes this mistake more costly.
Spot conflicting trades
Buying EUR/USD and buying USD/CHF largely cancel each other out. You pay two spreads for a position that barely moves. Check your open trades for this before you add a new one.
Hedge, with care
A negatively correlated pair can partly offset an existing position. The hedge is never perfect, though: correlations shift, you pay spreads and overnight swaps on both legs, and both trades can lose at once if the relationship breaks.
Use it as confirmation
If EUR/USD breaks higher but GBP/USD does not follow, the move may be specific to the euro rather than broad dollar weakness. Many traders wait for related pairs to agree before entering, especially during the London session when liquidity is highest.
ZAR crosses: what moves USD/ZAR
The rand is an emerging-market and commodity-linked currency, so USD/ZAR tends to follow a few broad drivers:
- Global risk sentiment: in risk-off periods, investors sell emerging-market assets and the rand usually weakens, so USD/ZAR rises. In risk-on periods the reverse tends to happen.
- Commodity prices: South Africa exports gold, platinum group metals, coal and iron ore. Rising metal prices often support the rand, pulling USD/ZAR lower.
- The US dollar: broad dollar strength lifts USD/ZAR along with other USD pairs, which is why USD/ZAR often moves against EUR/USD.
- Local factors: SARB interest rate decisions, inflation, fiscal news and political events can override global correlations entirely.
Because the rand is the common currency in USD/ZAR, EUR/ZAR and GBP/ZAR, holding positions in all three is mostly one bet on the rand. Treat them as a group when sizing trades.
Commodity currencies: oil, gold and the yen
Some currencies follow commodity prices as well as other currencies, usually because the country is a large exporter.
CAD and crude oil
Canada is a major oil exporter, so the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen when crude prices rise. Because USD/CAD quotes the dollar first, a rising oil price usually pushes USD/CAD lower. Oil inventory data and OPEC+ decisions can therefore move USD/CAD as much as Canadian news.
AUD and gold
Australia is one of the world’s largest gold producers, and gold, iron ore and other commodities make up a large share of its exports. AUD/USD often rises with the gold price, although Chinese demand and Reserve Bank of Australia policy can override the link.
JPY and gold
The yen and gold are both treated as safe havens. In risk-off periods money can flow into both at once, so gold may rise while USD/JPY falls. This is a sentiment link rather than a trade link, so it breaks down easily, for example when Bank of Japan policy pulls the yen in its own direction.
The rand belongs in this group too: higher gold and platinum prices tend to support it. If you hold USD/ZAR and a gold position at the same time, check whether they are really the same bet. Our guide to the most volatile forex pairs covers how fast the rand crosses can move.
Correlations change: check a current table
Correlations are not permanent. Central bank policy, a crisis or a shift in commodity markets can weaken or even reverse a relationship within weeks. Before you rely on any pair in this list, check a current correlation table (many brokers and charting sites publish live ones) and compare short and long periods. Treat this list as a starting point, not a trading signal.
Some brokers include correlation tools or MT5 add-ons in their platforms. Compare platforms and costs on Find your Broker.
FAQs
Which forex pairs are most correlated?
EUR/USD and GBP/USD, and AUD/USD and NZD/USD, are usually the most positively correlated majors. EUR/USD and USD/CHF are the classic negatively correlated pair.
What is a negative correlation in forex?
It means two pairs tend to move in opposite directions. EUR/USD and USD/CHF are the best-known example because the dollar is the quote currency in one and the base currency in the other.
Is USD/ZAR correlated with gold?
Often, yes, in a negative way: higher gold and metal prices tend to support the rand, which pushes USD/ZAR down. Risk sentiment and local news can break this link.
Can I hedge with correlated pairs?
You can partly offset risk with a negatively correlated pair, but the hedge is imperfect and costs spreads and swaps on both positions. Many traders find it simpler to cut position size instead.
Trading CFDs is high risk. Leverage can magnify losses, and you may lose your deposit. Only trade with money you can afford to lose.
